The region and Ontario is edging closer to herd immunity from COVID-19 because of vaccination, but the last mile is uphill, according to the local medical officer of health.
Over the last several weeks, vaccination disclosure policies and mandatory vaccination orders have been announced for various levels of government, healthcare, and, most recently for air and rail travel in Canada.
They are policy measures Dr. Charles Gardner, medical officer of health for the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit, knew would be needed, but still wished weren't needed.
“To get to the final mile of very high coverage we’ve needed policy, and we knew it would take that at the end to get you up to the level where we really do have the stability and herd immunity,” said Gardner during a media briefing Oct. 6. “Ideally we would prefer that people would simply want to get immunized.”
The policies, according to the doctor, are aimed at people who are hesitant, reluctant, or lacked “sufficient motivation,” to get a COVID-19 vaccine.
“It probably won’t change the minds for those who are truly opposed,” said Gardner.
Currently, 80 per cent of the 12 and older population in Simcoe-Muskoka is fully vaccinated, which is about 70 per cent of the total population (including children). About 76 per cent of the total population of Ontario (including children) is fully vaccinated.
The Ontario Science Advisory Table estimates herd immunity won’t be reached until 90 per cent of the entire population of Ontario is vaccinated. The goal rate for immunization moved up with the emergence of the more transmissible delta variant, which is now the dominant SARS-CoV-2 strain.
Gardner confirmed the delta strain was responsible for 100 per cent of COVID-19 cases in the region last week.
“We have some control of the delta wave right now [in Ontario],” said Gardner. “It’s a precarious balance we have right now, so we do need to edge up immunization as a key strategy to deal with that.”
Though, he added, vaccination is not the only measure needed to control transmission. Fully immunized people can still be infected with the virus and may still be hospitalized with serious COVID-19 illness.
According to the health unit, the rate of COVID-19 infection among unvaccinated, but vaccine-eligible, Simcoe-Muskoka population is 11 times higher than for fully vaccinated population. The rate of hospitalization for that group is 40 times higher.
The provincial and regional vaccination rates, said Gardner, are major contributors to successes in flattening the fourth wave, but he said other control measures are needed in addition to vaccines.
All of it together, is helping the region and province achieve herd immunity, according to the doctor.
“It’s possible that we’re getting there,” said Gardner, adding he has had discussions about it with colleagues on the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table. “Perhaps we’re at the point where every additional percentage increase in coverage is tipping us much more and more in the right direction that we’re sort of teetering on the edge of getting there.”
