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Home sales holding steady in region, still about 25% below 5-year averages

'With more interest rate cuts expected through the end of the year it will take more data to establish a firmer sightline on where the market is headed next,' says Realtor association president
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Bonnie Looby, president of the Lakelands Association of Realtors.

July might have been a hot month for daily temps but it was lukewarm for home sales in the region. 

The Lakelands Association of Realtors reported 389 non-waterfront homes sold in July 2024, which is 12 sales fewer than in July 2023. 

There were 123 waterfront homes sold this July, up six from last July.

The total dollar value of non-waterfront homes sold last month was $291.8 million, and $122.2 million for waterfront. 

"Overall residential activity was about even with where it stood last year at the same time in our region, with a small increase in waterfront sales offsetting a small decline in non-waterfront activity," said Bonnie Looby, president of the Lakelands Association of Realtors, in a news release.

There's inventory available, though, said Looby. 

"New listings are still coming in very strong for the non-waterfront segments of the market, while sellers of waterfront properties have pulled back their listings to some extent," she stated in the news release. 

Compared to five- and ten-year averages, sales are down 26 per cent and 30 per cent respectively. For waterfront sales, the number of units sold is 36 below the five-year average and 42 per cent below the 10-year average for the month. 

Compared to just last year, sales from January to July show little change. There was a decline of seven per cent for non-waterfront sales and an increase of 1.7 per cent (11 sales) in the year-to-date comparisons. 

The MLS Home Price Index shows a composite benchmark price of $726,900 across the region. Split into home types, the benchmark prices were $758,900 for a single-family home, $558,100 for a townhouse, and $472,800 for an apartment. 

"Pricing trends for non-waterfront homes seem to be turning a corner while the median price for waterfront homes took an unexpected dip in July compared to the near record in the previous month. With more interest rate cuts expected through the end of the year it will take more data to establish a firmer sightline on where the market is headed next," stated Looby in the news release.

The Lakelands region wraps around Georgian Bay with Collingwood, Clearview, The Blue Mountains, Grey Highlands, Meaford and Wasaga Beach in the western portion of the region. 

In the West, the median price of a non-waterfront home sold in July, 2024, was $670,000, down from $735,000 in July, 2023. There were 124 non-waterfront sales in the west in May, down 19 per cent from last year. 

There were 10 waterfront homes sold in the western part of the region last month, with a median sale price of $810,000. 

In the central portion of Lakelands, which includes Midland, Orillia, Oro-Medonte, Penetanguishene, Ramara, Springwater, Tay and Tiny Township, the median price of a non-waterfront home sold in July 2024 was $682,625, which is up by 1.1 per cent compared to last year. 

The median price for waterfront homes sold in the central part of the region was the highest of the three divisions at $1,060,000, which is still a 15 per cent decrease compared to July 2023. There were 27 waterfront sales in the central region in July and 164 non-waterfront sales. 

In the northern part of Lakelands, which includes Muskoka and Parry Sound, there were 101 non-waterfront homes sold at a median price of $605,077, and 86 waterfront homes sold at a median price of $773,500. 

Across Ontario home prices rose slightly in July, continuing a trend of broad stability set in February, figures released Thursday by the Canadian Real Estate Association show. 

On a year-over-year basis, the average single-family home in the province sold for $959,600 in July, down 5.2 per cent from the average of $1.012,400 they sold for in July 2023. 

The numbers are seasonally adjusted and do not take inflation into account.

Inflation, depending on what measure you choose, is running at between 3.4 and 3.7 per cent. 

“With another rate cut announced on July 24, we’ve now seen two rate cuts in a row, and the expected pace of future policy easing has steepened considerably, with markets now anticipating rate cuts at every remaining Bank of Canada decision this year,” CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart said in a release.

On a province-wide basis, prices for condos in a year-over-year comparison fell 6.7 per cent, and townhouses fell 4.3 per cent. 

“While it wasn’t apparent in the July housing data from across Canada, the stage is increasingly being set for the return of a more active housing market,” CREA chair James Mabey said in a release.

Within Ontario, sales in the north continued to show stronger growth than those elsewhere in the province — single-family homes in Sault Ste. Marie were up 2.5 per cent year-over-year, and those in North Bay were up 3.4 per cent. 

Locally in the Lakelands real estate area in July, single-family house prices were broadly unchanged at a 0.8 fall in price, as were condos, which were down 0.3 per cent compared to July 2023, using seasonally adjusted numbers unadjusted for inflation. Condos fell 3 per cent in the same period. 

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