Representatives from The Blue Mountains have questioned Grey County’s projected growth in paramedic calls in their community over the next ten years.
At its meeting on Feb. 9, county council received a report from ORH (Operational Research in Health Limited) that outlined expected growth in demand for the service over the next decade.
The report predicts that calls for paramedic services in The Blue Mountains will almost double in the next ten years with an average growth rate of 8.7 per cent per year.
However, representatives from The Blue Mountains questioned those numbers and pointed out that the report showed that calls for paramedic services in the town increased an average of 18.6 per cent per year from 2012 - 2022.
“We’re the second fastest growing municipality in Canada,” said The Blue Mountains deputy Mayor Peter Bordignon. “How can you justify a decrease? I can’t reconcile the numbers.”
ORH consultant Andrew Greggan said they are not predicting a decrease in demand for paramedic services and the 8.7 per cent increase is the predicted yearly average.
CAO Kim Wingrove added that the 18.6 per cent growth the previous ten years had been skewed somewhat by large growth rates in a couple of years. She said the 8.7 per cent predicted rate in The Blue Mountains for the next 10 years was higher than in six of the previous ten years.
“A couple of times in those previous years there was a significant increase in a single year,” she said.
The Blue Mountains Mayor Andrea Matrosovs shared Bordignon’s concerns.
“I agree with my colleagues’ concerns raised about growth projections in The Blue Mountains and Grey Highlands. Our community is the second fastest-growing municipality in Canada, and Grey County cannot underestimate growth and then fall short of providing services. The same goes for growth in Grey Highlands,” Matrosovs said in an emailed statement after the meeting.
Matrosovs said she was pleased the report on paramedic services recommended a new station to be built in Feversham in 2025.
“Our citizens’ needs for emergency services don’t start and stop at municipal boundaries within the county. A Feversham location would serve both our Grey Highlands neighbours and our own rural population in the south of our municipality,” she said.
In a phone interview after the meeting, Bordignon said the county report forecasted significant growth and development in The Blue Mountains, but left a recommended paramedic service expansions at the Craigleith station to 2033. The report recommends adding a 12-hour day shift in Craigleith in 2033.
“Craigleith is at the bottom of the list. It shows a 90 per cent increase in ten years and that’s the last area to come online? How does that make any sense,” said Bordignon. “I find it concerning. If you’re going to follow the math, follow the math in all aspects.”
During the meeting, Grey Highlands mayor Paul McQueen expressed concerns the growth forecasts were not capturing the changing demographics of the county. McQueen noted that the local area is experiencing seasonal residents becoming full-time residents. He also said the resort-style growth in areas like The Blue Mountains meant more visitors in the local areas.
“Did you capture that? With more people in the area it changes the population and demand,” he said.
Bordignon echoed McQueen’s comments.
“Our population (in The Blue Mountains) triples on a busy weekend,” he said.
Director of Paramedic Services Kevin McNab said the county is well aware of the challenges presented in The Blue Mountains.
“The report identifies The Blue Mountains as an area for us to keep an eye on,” he said.
In totality, the report forecasts that paramedic call volumes will grow by 68 per cent across the county over the next 10 years.
It makes several recommendations for future service expansions to deal with the growth including:
- 2024: Add a 12-hour day shift at Owen Sound and Hanover
- 2025: Open a new location at Feversham with a 12-hour day shift (upstaffing of FRU), plus additional 12-hour day shift at Meaford
- 2027: Add a 12-hour late shift at Owen Sound
- 2029: Add a 12-hour day shift at Durham
- 2031: Add a 12-hour night shift at Owen Sound
- 2033: Add a 12-hour day shift at Craigleith
Part of the project also includes simulation modeling software that will enable the county to track changes and increased demand in order to respond to needs.
“This is the first time we’ve done this. It’s really going to help us,” said McNab.
