Grey County is forecasting that usage of paramedic services is going to rise by almost 70 per cent over the next ten years.
At its meeting on Oct. 13, county council received a preliminary report from ORH (Operational Research in Health Limited) consultant Andrew Greggan about future needs for Grey County Paramedic Services.
ORH specializes in studying ambulance and paramedic services around the world. The company conducts analyses and develops forecasts that help the services plan for future needs and requirements.
Greggan reported to council that Grey County Paramedic Services is operating well, but over the next ten years calls for service are expected to grow by approximately 5.8 per cent per year or 68 per cent in total. The report forecasts that calls for services in the 75 years or older age group are going to double over the next decade.
“The age group is shifting up as time moves on,” said Greggan.
At the meeting, Greggan presented the data that ORH had gathered using its various modelling formulas and techniques. County Director of Paramedic Services Kevin McNabb told council a full report would be coming in a few weeks time with some recommendations for how to prepare the department for the future.
“We’ve been working on this since June looking at where resources are needed to put us on solid footing for the next 10 years,” said McNabb.
During his presentation, Greggan said the data they had collected showed the county’s paramedic services department is doing a good job.
“There aren’t any real clear outliers. You tend to sit in the middle or the better end,” he said. “There’s not anything that really jumps out at us.”
Greggan also noted that offload delays at hospitals (the time it takes to transfer a patient from the care of paramedics to the care of the hospital) have not been a major issue in Grey County. He noted a slight uptick in offload delays around the pandemic and said the county should take steps to monitor the issue. The study also reports that in different areas of the county, there are different peak seasons for calls for paramedic services. In The Blue Mountains, demand for the services is significantly higher during the winter months.
ORH looked at the location of the county’s ambulance bases to determine if they were in the optimal spots. The county has eight ambulance bases in operation in: Owen Sound, Meaford, Craigleith, Chatsworth, Markdale, Dundalk, Durham and Hanover. The company’s modelling data showed that the current bases are essentially in the ideal locations. ORH ran test modelling to see if results would improve if the Chatworth base was shifted to Thornbury, but the impact was negligible, said Greggan.
“It is showing us that, really, no change is needed for the future,” Greggan said on the topic of base locations.
Grey Highlands Mayor Paul McQueen noted the seasonal differences in demand for ambulance services in certain parts of the county and wondered if a “roving” ambulance station that would be moved to more optimal locations depending on the season was possible.
“We have a uniqueness here in Grey County,” said McQueen.
McNabb said the idea of a temporary location has pitfalls.
“It’s difficult for staff. It’s tough for them not to have a place to go and clean up and do documentation,” said McNabb. “It’s definitely not good for staff.”
Greggan said ORH could look at modelling some databases around a “less traditional” ambulance base being provided to examine how such a facility would impact services and response times.
